Refections on Covid-19 after 6 months when the first lockdown was implimented

 

This essay was originally written September 30, 2020.

 

Here we are about six and a half months after the lock-down in Ontario was first announced. This is a good time to look back and evaluate how we have done.

But first let us have a quick peek at the numbers. As of yesterday, in Ontario a total of 2,832 have reportedly died from Covid-19, out of a population of about 14.4 million. After 6 months. Put another way, 0.02% of Ontarians have died from this virus. Of those who have died 68.4% were 80 years old or older. Between the ages of 20 and 49 only 1.3% (38) died. And a mere 0.04% (1 person) were less than 20 years old.

This “pandemic” was first made out to be a profoundly serious scourge based on a computer model generated by the Imperial College in England. It has proven to be wrong.

Early on we had indications that it was not as virulent as predicted due to several petri dish like examples such as the Diamond Princess cruise ship and the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. In both, although everyone was in close contact due to the fact they were isolated together on ships, no more than about 20% got infected and very few died. In Ontario, the numbers are less severe than what those too examples indicated what to expect.

How do we compare with other jurisdictions? On a world scale comparison Canada currently comes in at 29^th based on a death’s per capita basis with 243 per million. Peru, with a similar population, sits at the number 2 position with 932 deaths per million. They implemented a far tighter lock-down than us. A lot of good that did them. Sweden, a country that did not go to lock-down, kept schools open but did recommend better personal hygiene and social distancing sits at the 13^th spot with 579 deaths per million and appears to be fully recovered.

As a quick aside here are some statistics for Sweden. Of those Swedes reportedly dying from Covid-19 (5,890), 67.5% were 80 or older, 1.3% were between the ages of 20 and 49 and 0.03% (2) were less than 20. Note how those percentages are virtually identical to what we have experienced. Two different countries who implemented two quite different protocols with remarkably similar results.

Was the lock-down worth it? An article in the Wall Street Journal by T.J. Rodgers examined that very matter. He and his co-workers ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown for each state in the US. Like the provinces in Canada, each state determined if, and when a lock-down was warranted. The correlation coefficient was negligible; going to lock-down did not produce any recognisable advantage. What has happened in Sweden has confirmed that analysis.

So why did we go to lock-down? While a good question I for one have no answer. It was a course of action that has never been tried before and on such a grand scale. But what it has done is expose a cancer in just about every country that went down that path; unelected bureaucrats enabled and emboldened by unquestioning media have perverted politicians of every political persuasion. With exceedingly rare exception no scientifically supported justifications have been produced to support the irrational and inconsistently enforced “rules” imposed. If there is rioting in the name of “social justice”, such as Black Lives Matter or Antifa then there are no arrests for being too close or not wearing masks. But if you protest the lock-down rules it is quite a different story. While I for one am not happy with what we have been subjected to at least we are better off than the state of Victoria in Australia where their political leadership have  proven they are not a “democracy” but a dictatorship.

While I cannot find a rational answer for this “cancer” at this time, I still find it very troublesome in that at its very core are career bureaucrats who have little insight to the real world making such life changing decisions based on little, if any, facts and we are unable to make them accountable. People like Ontario’s chief medical Officer, Dr. David Williams and lesser bureaucrats beneath him such as Thunder Bay’s own Dr. Demille, seem to ponder the question “what ridiculous rule can I come up with just to mess with peoples minds”? With little if any oversight by elected officials. An obvious example was having nothing to do with masks when the virus was at its peak but now, with the worst well behind us, this is the time they should be mandated? Or better yet talking about a “second wave” when the reality is that far more testing is being done using a method that is overly sensitive to even those who have recovered. Never mind the prevalence of false positives. Yet the number of people with symptoms in Intensive Care Units has not changed for weeks nor have deaths. The “second wave” they are referring to is the panic porn they were flaunting back in March.

This epidemic has proven that Doug Ford is not a “leader”, and neither is Trudeau. Both show an inability to surround themselves with smart people with, most importantly, high morals and ethics. In the case of Trudeau, he has proven too many times that he is oblivious to good morals and ethics. I try to be optimistic for the future but with all major media that too has lost all sense of good morals and ethics along with far too many in government in the same boat it is exceedingly difficult. I see no short-term answer other than to repeal as soon as possible the draconian emergency measures legislation that gave elected and unelected officials the ability to overpower what are supposed to be our basic “rights” without any oversight. I am not holding my breath. This province and this country are quickly circling the toilet bowl and likely will succumb before saner minds can save us.

In closing I would like to leave you with this thought; how will you be preparing for the oncoming flu season? An event due to a group of viruses for which there is no known cure although it has been with us for a very long time and whose mortality rate and demographic profile is within the same order of magnitude as Covid-19. We were never afraid of one but now we must fear the other?