A little while back I came across an interesting research paper:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.11.20229708v1.full.pdf
The title is “Mortality in Norway and Sweden before and after the Covid-19 outbreak: a cohort study”. A cohort study involves studying a group of people who share a defining characteristic. In this case Norway and Sweden are two countries that while they share a border also share a lot of other characteristics with regards to population. More specifically: “Norway and Sweden are similar countries regarding ethnicity, governmental and administrative systems, socioeconomics and public health care systems, and both countries have reliable, timely and complete registration of deaths.” The one difference though is that each took a different path when it came to dealing with Covid-19. This study set out to determine what differences there were between these two types of actions for two populations that show little difference other than what country they are in.
They “compared all-cause mortality and Covid-19 associated deaths in Norway and Sweden, before and during the epidemic, in light of the different measures against Covid-19”. The researchers compiled weekly number for all causes of death for the last 5 years for both countries. They then broke out the data into five 12-month periods ending on July 26th, 2020. Besides the whole populations of each country, they also broke the data down based on the following age groups: 0-69, 70-79 and ≥80. The data were also normalised by population to make sure they were comparing equal data types.
They calculated the average mortality rates per week as well as the highest and lowest number of deaths through out each 12-month period. In addition, they calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR). They also calculated all-cause mortality rates and all Covid-19 associated deaths. All data is publicly available and thus easily verified.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, primarily because it can show complex data in a form that is easy to understand. Thus, I am not going to cite any more of the text. If you want to, feel free to follow the link above and read the report yourself. So, without further ado here are the summary figures, along with their captions, followed by any comments I make.
The dashed lines are the average for the previous 4 years. Note the following: a) the mortality rate is slightly higher in Sweden than Norway but both parallel one another quite well; b) beginning about elate November-early December the most recent data set shows a below average death rate until March; and c) Sweden experiences a spike that ended in early July.
To recap what it says in the text description, A shows the age group 0-69. See the COVID-19 spike? It is there in early April but just barely. For the next age group, the same spike but a bit more prominent. And then for the 80 or over group it is obvious. Of special note is that No obvious anomaly is present for Norway!
To date (February 11, 2021) Norway has had 109 deaths per million of population, while Sweden has had 1,220, approximately a 10-fold difference!
What conclusions can we draw? One possibly is that as Norway imposed much more restrictive measures then lock downs work. If that is the case, then every country that imposed a lockdown should have low number of deaths from COVID-19. Here is the COVID-19 deaths for Canada from last spring up to mid August:
Not flat like Norway’s yet we went into a full lock-down like Norway did, yet we experienced a different result! While not as high as Sweden, it is still not that different. I hope they continue with the study as much more can be learned form the last half of 2020.
Here are the COVID-19 deaths for Norway to date followed by Sweden’s:
I suspect that the big
difference is due to the same primary reason as many island nations that also have low COVID-19 deaths.
When Norway shut down, they included a complete shutdown at the border. Neither
Canada nor Sweden did that. If you don’t let a pest into the house it is unable
to do any havoc.That should be one lesson that could be learned, but I suspect that will not be the case.